UAE Petrol Prices December 2026: Will Fuel Go Up or Down?

What happened in November

The committee cut all three petrol grades by around 5.5% for November 2026: Super 98 fell to AED 4.16 from AED 4.40, Special 95 to AED 4.04 from AED 4.28 and E-Plus 91 to AED 3.97 from AED 4.21, with diesel down 1% to AED 4.75. It was the first cut in four months and it went against our forecast of a 3 to 4% rise, and against most analysts, because Brent averaged about USD 107 in October against USD 102 in September. The lesson for December: the published formula (average global oil price plus distribution costs) does not track the headline Brent monthly average as tightly as it did earlier in 2026.

How UAE fuel prices are set

The UAE Fuel Price Committee announces the next month's prices on the last day of each month. Prices are meant to follow the average global oil price over the previous month, not the price on announcement day, so November's oil average decides December's pump prices even if oil drops in the first days of December.

What oil is doing now

• Brent settled at USD 117.64 on 30 October after briefly touching USD 118, its highest in six months, up about 15% in October
• WTI finished October at USD 104.12, up about 12% on the month
• The drivers are the same as October: Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, tankers hit by mines in the Strait of Hormuz and higher freight costs
• Pulling the other way: hopes of renewed US and Iran talks capped prices in the last week of October, and OPEC+ is expected to hold output steady at its 1 November meeting
• Banks are raising their forecasts: ANZ now sees Brent at USD 105 at year end and UBS at USD 110, both below where it is trading now
• Qamar Energy's Ahmed Zaheer told The National that persistent geopolitical risk and freight costs support prices, while a diplomatic breakthrough could limit further increases

Three scenarios for December

• Most likely, flat to a small rise (our call): Brent averages USD 110 to 115 in November, a little above October, and the committee claws back part of November's cut. Special 95 at AED 4.04 to 4.20, Super 98 at AED 4.16 to 4.32, E-Plus 91 at AED 3.97 to 4.13 and diesel around AED 4.75 to 4.85
• Bigger move down: a US and Iran deal reopens Hormuz shipping and Brent drops to USD 100 or below for most of November. Special 95 could fall to AED 3.80 to 3.95
• Rise: Brent holds above USD 115 all month and the committee catches up with October's spike as well. Special 95 back to AED 4.30 to 4.45, within reach of its July 2022 record of AED 4.52

These are our reading of the market, not official forecasts. We called November wrong, so treat the ranges as a guide to the direction, not a promise. The official numbers replace these estimates the moment they are out on 30 November.

How far prices have moved in 2026

• February: Special 95 at AED 2.33, the low point of the year
• April: AED 3.28, the first big jump after the conflict began
• June: AED 3.83
• July: AED 3.29, a temporary dip
• September: AED 3.69
• October: AED 4.28, the 2026 high so far
• November: AED 4.04, the first cut in four months

What it means if you are buying a car

Even after November's cut, Special 95 is about 73% dearer than in February, and oil is starting the month at a six-month high, so fuel economy is still worth weighing as much as price. For a driver covering 2,500 km a month at the November price of AED 4.04, a compact sedan using 6.5 L/100 km costs about AED 655 a month to fuel, against about AED 1,565 for a large V8 SUV using 15.5 L/100 km. The SUV premium is roughly AED 910 a month, or close to AED 11,000 a year, and it would be wider again under the rise scenario.

At Carology every car is sold at one all-inclusive price with insurance, RTA registration, inspection and ownership transfer included, and we can buy your current car in the same visit.